Betting on baseball (MLB)
To learn how to bet on baseball, the first thing to do is to understand how the sport is played. A classic baseball game consists of two teams made up of nine players. They alternate with bat and throw for nine innings, three withdrawals per team each, and try to score as many points as possible by crossing the four bases of the field.
Basebal betting: the basics
There are three main types of baseball bets : Money Lines, Run Lines and Totals. In baseball, Money Line bets simply relate to the team that will win the match. Run Line bets are the baseball equivalent of point handicap in the NFL , while Totals are the total number of points scored in a game.
Now that you've figured out how to bet on baseball, you still have to figure out how to get the edge on the bookie. There are two main factors to consider when placing Money Line baseball bets wisely:
Defense: the starting launcher
Considering the multitude of matches that generally make up a season in MLB (Major League Baseball), it is important to know the rotations and to know who will be the starting pitcher for a given match. Although we analyze the relievers (or relief throwers) of a team, it is ultimately the starting pitcher who provides the most essential variables.
There are several throwing statistics to consider: IP (Innings Pitched: number of innings pitched), WHIP (Walks Plus Hits per Innings Pitched: average walks and hitting awarded per innings pitched), ERA (Earned Run Average : average earned points) and WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player: wins over replacement).
Attack: the batters
After evaluating the effectiveness of the pitchers of each team, the same must be done for the drummers. Here again, there are many statistics, but some are considered more interesting than others; here are some examples of statistics to use for betting: PA (Plate Appearances: batting) wOBA (weighted On-Base Average), OBP (On-Base Percentage) and ISO (Isolated Power).
If Run Line bets can be more profitable, they require a little more knowledge of baseball. Broadly speaking, for those who know betting in the NFL, the value of 1.5 points in baseball is in practice the same as that of 3 points in American football, namely a handicap of 1.5 points that l The team that is the subject of the bet must cover so that it is a winner.
It is possible to develop a Run Line strategy to help bettors determine whether the market is profitable or not, by converting the Run Line odds into a percentage chance of winning.
Here is the formula for converting odds to probabilities :
Conversion of odds into probabilities:
(risk / return) x 100 = probability percentage
However, experienced bettors calculate the probability without the bookmaker's margin, which can be done with a hypothetical example.
The following formula is used to calculate odds without margins, in other words “true” odds:
(Boston Red Sox rating - Tampa Bay Rays rating) / 2 = Boston Red Sox rating without margin
Now that we have converted the Boston Red Sox odds to “true odds”, we can find the Run Line bet's odds ratio of -1.5 over them:
(105/205) x 100 = 51%
The principle is just as simple when converting decimal odds into probabilities. Just convert the odds into a percentage to find the bookmaker's margin:
1 / decimal odds = implied probability
1 / 1.92 = 0.5208 or 52.08%
We then calculate the implicit probability of all outcomes to obtain the margin.
(1 / 1.92) + (1 / 1.99) = 1.022 or 102.2% = 2.2% margin
implicit probability x (100 - margin) = percentage of true chances
0.5208 x (100 - 2.2) = 51%
Baseball Totals Betting
As with all sports, betting on baseball totals involves betting that the total number of points scored in a game will be higher or lower than the figure set by the bookmaker; each team has 27 withdrawals to score as many points as possible, which is ideal for strategic bets.
As with Money Line baseball bets, it can be very enlightening to analyze both teams from the perspective of attack and defense potential. In addition, there are several external factors that may increase or decrease the number of points in a match.
Apart from the analysis of the performance of teams and players, it is important to take into account the external factors that could influence the bets. While baseball has similarities to other sports in terms of playing field advantage and the impact of weather , it is slightly different in terms of the importance of luck.
Moist air is thicker, making it more difficult for the ball to pass through, while heat makes air scarcer and allows the ball to go further.
Baseball stadium dimensions vary, which can affect the number of points scored. The Colorado Rockies 'Coors Field and the Arizona Diamondbacks' Chase Field are known for their high scores. In contrast, the San Francisco Giants' AT&T Park and Safeco Field, where the Seattle Mariners play their home games, are considered low-point stadiums.
Temperature, humidity and wind speed on match day also affect baseball bets. Moist air is thicker, making it more difficult for the ball to pass through, while heat makes air scarcer and allows the ball to go further.
The wind has a more obvious impact on baseball, either in favor or against the batsmen. If a strong wind blows in the opposite direction of the throw, the ball will not go very far; if the drummer has the wind with him, she can travel a greater distance. It is very important to analyze the wind speed and direction to place bets on baseball totals.
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